Microbrand Watch Market Report Q4 2025: Where Supply and Scarcity Diverge

In Q4 2025 (October through December), 250 microbrands released 373 new watches into a catalog of 8,800+ actively monitored timepieces. We track every watch for real-time availability changes: available, sold out, preorder, restocked.

This report compares Q4 releases against the full catalog and cross-references with sold-out rates, user collection saves and restock notification data as of end of 2025. We looked at style, case size, dial color, complications and price. The question: where are brands putting their chips, and where does scarcity suggest they should be looking harder?

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GMT watches: most scarce, still underserved

GMT has the highest sold-out rate of any major style at 35%, out of 405 GMT watches in the catalog. GMT makes up 4.6% of the catalog but accounted for 7% of Q4 releases. Brands are responding, but slowly.

Our restock notification data backs this up. GMT accounts for roughly 30% of all watch tracking subscriptions. More than dive and field combined. The most-tracked watch overall is the Traska Venturer GMT Steel Blue. The top 5 most-tracked watches are all GMTs: 4 Traska Venturer variants and the Lorier Hyperion.

GMT is also the most-saved style in user collection data. About a third of the top 15 most-saved watches are GMTs.

As a complication, GMT/dual-time shows a 30% sold-out rate. Compare that to chronograph at 22% and date at 26%.

GMT is a utility complication. Remote work, international teams, travel across time zones. It maps to how people actually live now. This isn't trend-driven demand.

Dive watches: still the biggest category, still selling

"The dive market is oversaturated." We hear this a lot. The data says otherwise.

Divers make up 25% of the catalog and hold a 31% sold-out rate, the second-highest of any major style behind GMT. In Q4, dive share dropped to 17% of new releases. Brands are pulling back. But the sold-out rate hasn't dropped with it. There's still room.

Case size: brands are betting small, the market is less convinced

The most visible shift in Q4: brands went hard on smaller watches. The 37-38mm range jumped from 14.3% of catalog to 22.9% of Q4 releases. Sub-37mm also grew, from 12.9% to 17.1%.

On the other end, 43mm+ collapsed to just 3.3% of Q4 releases, down from 14.3% of the catalog.

The scarcity data doesn't fully support this bet:

Size	Catalog %	Q4 release %	Sold-out rate
< 37mm	12.9%	17.1%	14%
37-38mm	14.3%	22.9%	28%
39mm	11%	13.5%	29%
40mm	23.6%	22.4%	27%
41mm	8.5%	11.3%	24%
42mm	15.4%	9.4%	22%
43mm+	14.3%	3.3%	28%

Sub-37mm has the lowest sold-out rate at 14%. The 37-40mm range clusters around 27-29%. The 43mm+ sold-out rate of 28% is comparable to the sweet spot, but likely inflated by smaller production runs.

The takeaway: 37-40mm is where supply and scarcity align. Below that, brands may be overcommitting.

Dial color: the Instagram push continues

Q4 releases leaned hard into color. Turquoise went from 4.3% of catalog to 7.3% of Q4 releases. Brown nearly doubled (3.6% to 6.8%). Orange more than doubled (2% to 4.3%). Purple also grew (2.1% to 4.1%).

Black was deprioritized: down from 31.6% of catalog to 23.8% of Q4 releases.

Color	Catalog %	Q4 release %	Sold-out rate
Black	31.6%	23.8%	23%
Blue	13.9%	13.2%	26%
White	16.1%	12.2%	19%
Turquoise	4.3%	7.3%	31%
Brown	3.6%	6.8%	28%
Green	8.3%	8.4%	22%
Orange	2%	4.3%	30%

The colorful dials show higher sold-out rates (turquoise 31%, orange 30%), but smaller batch sizes inflate these numbers.

Our restock notification data paints a different picture. Of all active watch tracking subscriptions, 64% are for black, white or blue dials. Turquoise accounts for 3%. People set restock alerts for classic colors, not trendy ones.

Price: the $500-750 sweet spot

Average MSRP across the catalog: $1,238. Average for Q4 releases: $1,032. A 17% gap.

The $500-749 bracket is where it all comes together. It has the highest concentration of Q4 releases (26% vs 19.3% of catalog) and the highest sold-out rate of any price bracket at 33%.

Bracket	Catalog %	Q4 release %	Sold-out rate
< $250	8.2%	6%	16%
$250-499	27.9%	26.6%	24%
$500-749	19.3%	26%	33%
$750-999	11%	10.7%	29%
$1,000-1,499	12.2%	11%	22%
$1,500-1,999	6.1%	10.4%	25%
$2,000+	15.4%	9.3%	23%

Restock notifications tell the same story. 60% of all watch tracking subscriptions target watches in the $500-999 range.

Field watches are replacing pilot watches

One of the clearest category shifts in Q4. Field watches went from 6.1% of the catalog to 11.6% of Q4 releases. Pilot watches moved the other way: 5.7% of catalog down to just 3% of Q4 releases.

Pilot sold-out rate: 13%. Field sold-out rate: 21%. Both the supply signal and the scarcity signal point the same direction. The "everyday rugged" segment is consolidating around field.

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Summary

Across 8,800+ watches and 250 brands, here's where Q4 2025 landed:

• GMT is structurally underserved. 35% sold-out rate, most tracked, most saved, still only 7% of releases.
• Dive watches remain strong. 31% sold-out at 25% of catalog. Reports of oversaturation are premature.
• 37-40mm is the sweet spot. Sub-37mm is growing in supply but has the lowest scarcity at 14%.
• $500-750 is the convergence zone. Highest sold-out rate, highest release concentration, most restock alerts.
• Field is replacing pilot. Nearly 4x the Q4 release share with better sell-through.
• Color dials are surging in supply. But 64% of restock alerts target black, white or blue.

Methodology: This report uses data exclusively from 2025. The catalog baseline includes all active watches released before January 1, 2026. Sold-out rates represent a point-in-time snapshot as of end of Q4 2025. They measure scarcity, not lifetime demand. A brand producing 10 units and a brand producing 1,000 both show as "sold out" in equal measure. Collection saves and restock notifications represent active user intent signals. We don't have production volume data and we account for that throughout this report.